Obama to Make Pit Stop at UN Climate Change Meeting

Reuters reported today that, according to an administration official, US President Barack Obama would attend the beginning of the UN climate meeting in Copenhagen on December 9.  The news comes after days of speculation whether Obama would attend the meetings despite slow progress towards climate change legislation in the US.  Obama will travel from Copenhagen to Oslo to receive his Nobel Peace Prize, and is not expected to return for the end of the December 7 to 18 meetings in Copenhagen even though 65 other heads of state will be in attendance.

Environmental activists had hoped Obama would reaffirm his commitment to climate change, one of the cornerstones of his campaign and a top priority for his administration.  However, although The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 [Download PDF], also known as HR 2454 or the Waxman-Markey Bill, passed the US House of Representatives in June of 2009 it has since stalled in the US Senate as health care legislation has become a priority.  HR 2454 called for (1) retail electricity suppliers to meet 20% of their demand through renewable electricity and electricity savings by 2020, (2) an increase in overall US energy productivity by at least 2.5% per year by 2012, and (3) establishing a cap-and-trade system for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and setting goals for reducing such emissions by 83% of 2005 levels by 2050.

Opponents in the more conservative Senate claim that any cap-and-trade legislation will cripple the US economy, although the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office reported that HR 2454 would “reduce budget deficits by about $24 billion over the 2010-2019 period.”  The same report also indicated that cap-and-trade legislation would reduce GDP by 0.25% to 0.75% below what it otherwise would have been in 2020, and by 1% to 3.5% in 2050.  However, with real GDP in 2050 estimated to be 2.5 times what it is today, the impact overall is expected to be rather modest [Download CBO report].

Senate Democrats reaffirmed that a climate change bill would pass the Senate in early 2010, but until then Obama must carefully strike a balance at Copenhagen.  He is expected to announce some kind of political commitment to cutting emissions by 2020, perhaps by 17% as indicated in the House bill, but has his hands tied until a bill is passed through the Senate and reconciled between the two chambers.